Love comes with a price

preproc = function(x) {
  return {
        metric: x.Metric,
        qnum: +x.Quarter,
        quarter: "Q" + x.Quarter,
        value: +x.Value,
        year: +x.Year
  }
}

data = FileAttachment("finances.csv").csv().then(datum => {
  let qt = datum.filter(x => x.Quarter != "0").map(preproc).sort((a,b) => {
    if (a.year == b.year) {
      return a.qnum > b.qnum
    }
    return a.year - b.year;
  })
  let yt = datum.filter(x => x.Quarter == "0").map(preproc).sort((a, b) => a.year > b.year)
  return {qt: qt, yt: yt}
})

yt_pusers = data.yt.filter(x => x.metric == "Paying Users").map(d => {
  return {...d, year: d.year + ""}
})

yt_pusers_diff = data.yt.filter(x => x.metric == "Paying Users").map(d => {
  return {...d, year: d.year + ""}
}).map((d,i) => {
  let pu = data.yt.filter(x => x.metric == "Paying Users")
  if(i == 0) {
    return {...d, value: 0}
  } else {
    return {...d, value: pu[i].value - pu[i-1].value}
  }
}).filter(x => x.value != 0)

yt_arpusers = data.yt.filter(x => x.metric == "Total Average Revenue per Paying User").map(d => {
  return {...d, year: d.year + ""}
})

qt_arpusers = data.qt.filter(x => x.metric == "Total Average Revenue per Paying User").map(d => {
  return {...d, year: d.year + ""}
}).filter(d => d.year != "2019")

line_update_func = function(newData, g, scales) {
  let path_select = d3.select(g).selectAll("path")
          
  path_select
    .data([newData]) 
    .join("path")
    .transition()
    .duration(1000)
    .ease(d3.easeCubic)
    .call(path => {
      const previousPath = path.attr("d"); 
      const pathGenerator = d3.line(d => {
          return scales.x(d.year);
        }, d => {
          return scales.y(d.value);
        })
      const newPath = pathGenerator(newData);

      path
        .attrTween("d", function() {
          const interpolator = d3.interpolateString(previousPath || newPath, newPath);
          return function(t) {
              return interpolator(t); // Interpolate the path's 'd' attribute
          };
        })
        .attrTween("stroke-dasharray", function() {
          const totalLength = this.getTotalLength(); // Get the path length
          const prevLength = path_select.node().getTotalLength();
          return d3.interpolateString(`${prevLength},${totalLength}`, `${totalLength},${totalLength}`);
        });
    })
}
dot_update_func = function(newData, g) {
  d3.select(g)
    .selectAll("circle")
    .transition()
    .duration(100)
    .ease(d3.easeLinear)
    .attr("stroke-opacity", (d,i) => {
      if(i < newData.length) {
        return 1;
      }
    })
}

prog_scale = d3.scaleQuantize()
  .domain([0.0, 1.0])
  .range([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]);

qnum_scale = d3.scaleQuantize()
  .domain([0.0, 1.0])
  .range([1, 2, 3, 4])

md`Active sticky: ${crActiveSticky}`

md`Active trigger: ${crTriggerIndex}`

md`Trigger progress: ${(crTriggerProgress * 100).toFixed(1)}%`

md`Scroll direction: ${crDirection}`

md`Progress Block progress: ${(crProgressBlock * 100).toFixed(1)}%`

Love comes with a price, but how bad is it?

“Rapunzel, Rapunzel, let down your hair, so that I may climb thy golden stair”

Every Rapunzel on modern dating platforms are overwhelmed with the number of Prince Charming’s at the bottom of their towers. And with modern dating platforms giving the option for a potential Prince Charming to reach their Rapunzel’s tower faster with premium services, more and more Prince Charmings are paying to reach Rapunzel’s tower, is premium actually making a big difference?

Bumble was founded in December 2014 by Whitney Wolfe Herd, a co-founder of Tinder, with the mission of creating a more empowering and women-centric alternative in the online dating space.

The main concept of dating apps is that a new user enters their details and the app provides a series of similar users that they think are potential matches to approve or dismiss. If two users approve of each other, a match is created and the magic happens from there on.

On paper that sounds like a beautiful Disney movie, but reality can be more of a Grimm brothers tale. In reality, dating apps provide their services for free with a set of limitations which can be uplifted by paying a subscription fee.

With options like Spotlight to boost profile visibility and SuperSwipe to express heightened interest, Bumble Premium unlocks tools for finding connections faster and more effectively.

As of writing the article, Bumble Premium is priced at 17.99$ weekly on the iOS market and for 3 months the cost is 5.54$ weekly (66.48$ in total). This is not a fixed price as the price changes through the years and months with sales happening targeted for specific users.

But how many people are biting on the quick fix through out the years? To answer this question we decided to dig through the financial statements since Bumble went public in 2021.

The first question we have is, how many users have been becoming premium members throughout the years?

The answer is quite a lot and it seems to be growing.

But this is showing the total number of paying users for the given year.

What we really want to look at is the rate at which new paid users are joining.

There has been upward trend in the rate of new users joining premium especially after stagnating in 2020, which seems to suggest that maybe people willing to pay for dating apps in the post COVID-19 era?

If you look at it closely, compared to 2020, in 2021 there was a jump of nearly 360 new paying users, while in 2022 there was even more of a jump.

However when coming to 2023 the increase in the rate has been lesser compared to previous years. Are dating app users starting to see that even getting premium is not helpful with so many people joining in each year?

pusers_plot = Plot.plot({
  grid: true,
  x: {type: "point", label: "Year"},
  y: {label: "Number of premium users"},
  marks: [
    Plot.ruleY([0]),
    Plot.lineY(
      yt_pusers, 
      {
        x:"year",
        y:"value",
        render: (i, scales, values, dimensions, container, next) => {
          const g = next(i, scales, values, dimensions, container);
          g.update = (newData) => {
            line_update_func(newData, g, scales);
          }
          return g;
        }
      }
    ),
    Plot.dot(
      yt_pusers,
      {
        x:"year",
        y:"value",
        strokeOpacity: 0,
        render: (i, scales, values, dimensions, container, next) => {
          const g = next(i, scales, values, dimensions, container)
          g.update = (newData) => {
            dot_update_func(newData, g);
          }
          return g;
        }}
    )
  ]
})

_ = {
  if(crActiveSticky == "cr-p3" & crTriggerIndex == 0) {
      d3.select(pusers_plot).selectAll("g[aria-label='dot']").nodes()[0].update(yt_pusers.slice(0,prog_scale(crTriggerProgress)))
      d3.select(pusers_plot).selectAll("g[aria-label='line']").nodes()[0].update(yt_pusers.slice(0,prog_scale(crTriggerProgress)))
  }
}

pusers_diff_plot = Plot.plot({
  grid: true,
  x: {type: "point", label: "Additional users joined compared to previous year"},
  y: {label: "Users"},
  marks: [
    Plot.ruleY([200]),
    Plot.lineY(
      yt_pusers_diff,
      {
        x:"year", y:"value",
        render: (i, scales, values, dimensions, container, next) => {
          let g = next(i, scales, values, dimensions, container)
          g.update = (newData) => {
            line_update_func(newData, g, scales);
          }
          return g;
        }
      }
    ),
    Plot.dot(
      yt_pusers_diff,
      {
        x:"year", y:"value",
        render: (i, scales, values, dimensions, container, next) => {
          let g = next(i, scales, values, dimensions, container)
          g.update = (newData) => {
            dot_update_func(newData, g);
          }
          return g;
        }
      }
  )
  ]
})

__ = {
  if(crActiveSticky == "cr-p3-1" & crTriggerIndex == 1) {
    d3.select(pusers_diff_plot).selectAll("g[aria-label='dot']").nodes()[0].update(yt_pusers_diff.slice(0,prog_scale(crTriggerProgress)))
    d3.select(pusers_diff_plot).selectAll("g[aria-label='line']").nodes()[0].update(yt_pusers_diff.slice(0,prog_scale(crTriggerProgress)))
  }
}

So far we can see that a lot of people are joining Bumble Premium at a fast rate in the post COVID-19 era. With all of these people joining in surely Bumble is the party that is benefitting from this artificially created race.

But how much is Bumble earning from each premium user?

Let’s take a look at the average revenue per paying user through out the years.

Initially there’s an upward trajectory but after 2021 it has been going downhill.

These are yearly averages yet Bumble premium plans are can be purchased on a weekly, monthly or quarterly basis.

Therefore it is better to observe how much Bumble is earning through out quarters to see if the yearly average going down was common through out the quarters.

The large spike in the average revenue in 2021 is heavily influenced by the spike in the third quarter.

Considering both 2020 and 2021 the pattern is similar where the peak is at the third quarter after a steady climb from the first quarter.

The story changes after 2021, however, as the average revenue dips through each quarter, with 2024 showing the worst performance, where the first quarters earnings are coming close to the first quarter earnings of 2020.

Keep in mind that Bumble on average should be earning 66.48 for a quarter from each premium user, if we assume every user committed to be premium for three months.

Clearly the average revenue is less than that amount meaning that users are not committing fully into long periods of time.

qt_arpusers_plot = Plot.plot({
  grid: true,
  x: {label: "Quarter"},
  y: {label: "Average Revenue per Paying User", tickFormat: "$.1f"},
  color: {legend: true, scale: "ordinal"},
  marks: [
    Plot.lineY(qt_arpusers, {x: "quarter", y: "value", stroke: "year"}),
    Plot.dot(qt_arpusers, {x: "quarter", y: "value", stroke: "year"})
  ]
})

yt_pusers_plot = Plot.plot({
  grid: true,
  x: {type: "point", label: "Year"},
  y: {label: "Average Revenue per Paying User", tickFormat: "$.1f"},
  marks: [
    Plot.ruleY([22]),
    Plot.lineY(
      yt_arpusers,
      {
        x:"year", y:"value",
        render: (i, scales, values, dimensions, container, next) => {
          let g = next(i, scales, values, dimensions, container)
          g.update = (newData) => {
            line_update_func(newData, g, scales)
          }
          return g;
        }
      }
    ),
    Plot.dot(
      yt_arpusers,
      {
        x:"year", y:"value",
        render: (i, scales, values, dimensions, container, next) => {
          let g = next(i, scales, values, dimensions, container)
          g.update = (newData) => {
            dot_update_func(newData, g)
          }
          return g;
        }
      }
    )
  ]
})

___ = {
  if(crActiveSticky == "cr-p4" & crTriggerIndex == 3) {
    d3.select(yt_pusers_plot).selectAll("g[aria-label='dot']").nodes()[0].update(yt_arpusers.slice(0,prog_scale(crTriggerProgress)))
    d3.select(yt_pusers_plot).selectAll("g[aria-label='line']").nodes()[0].update(yt_arpusers.slice(0,prog_scale(crTriggerProgress)))
  }
}

Toupee or not Toupee?

Overall Bumble has exploited the users definite need for intimacy and with the isolation and digitization that the post Covid era has brought more and more people are joining premium.

However, dating app users are slowly starting to understand this pattern as is clearly seeing by the dwindling earnings from paying users. Now the dating app platform is also suffering after exploiting the system for years which is signaling for a change from the dating platforms.

Should you get Bumble Premium? Maybe it’s best not to,aAt the rate of the premium users that are in Bumble it’s going to be even difficult to guarantee that being a premium user gets you ahead of the queue.

If you are curious and want to jump in and check it out, just know that the competition is getting higher and higher even amongst the paying users, and the best time to stand out from paying users is to avoid the third and fourth quarter.